Hunger or induced steel price rise at the end of the month

On the 21st, the steel market mixed. The price of rebar increased slightly, while that of high-line prices dropped slightly. The prices of hot-rolled coils increased significantly, and the areas in which the plate market expanded were gradually increasing. In addition, the new pricing policies of major steel mills have been introduced, and the large gap between the market price and the settlement price given by the steel mills will cause the steel market to appear under the influence of the increasing strength of the late-stage capital market signal (Gingha development). Pull. The strong market expectation after the Spring Festival and the market's "starvation" formed by the sharp fall in the post-holiday market are expected to be induced.

According to monitoring, on the 21st, the average price of domestic Ф25mm tertiary rebar in domestic key cities was 3,731 yuan (ton price, the same below), which was 6 yuan higher than that on the 20th; the average price of domestic high-profile Ф6.5mm high line was 3,651 yuan, which was 20 It fell 3 yuan per day; the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coils in domestic key cities was 3,931 yuan, up 20 yuan from the 20th; the average price of 1.0mm cold-plates in key domestic cities was 4883 yuan, which was the same as that on the 20th; major domestic cities The average price of 20mm middle plate is 3863 yuan, which is 1 yuan lower than that of the 20th.

The rebar main 1310 contract was opened at 3,885 yuan/ton in the morning on the 21st, and then the price showed a high-opening shock pattern throughout the day. The lowest was 3,873 yuan/ton for the whole day, and the highest was 3,928 yuan/ton, and it was closed at 3,902 yuan/ton. On the previous trading day (20th), the settlement price rose by 43 yuan/ton, 3,353,754 contracts, 1,297,650 positions, an increase of 77,588 contracts.

On the raw materials side, on the 21st, the 1502150 carbon billet in Tangshan was 3,270 yuan, which was 30 yuan more than that on the 20th; the price of 65-66 grade acidic dry iron-based fine powder in Tangshan was 1,110 yuan, which was 10 yuan less than on the 20th; Tangshan area The price of secondary metallurgical coke was 1,520 yuan, which was the same as that on the 20th.

On the macro level, HSBC Bank released the initial value of manufacturing PMI in March of 51.7 on the 21st, hitting a new high in two months, indicating that the external environment for China's manufacturing recovery is relatively good.

For steel mills, this week, Hegang introduced the construction steel guidance price in late March. Among them, Tang Xuancheng's spiral product is lowered by RMB 200, while the defective product is reduced by RMB 100. Tangsteel's 6.5mm high-line guide price is RMB 3,600, and the price for 18-25mm secondary screw is 3600 yuan, 3700 yuan, no settlement price. The order price of the Hegang Group's plate products also saw a substantial downward adjustment, including 380 yuan for the HRC, 300 yuan for the mid-board, 150 yuan for the cold coil, 250 yuan for the pick-up coil, and the settlement price in March and the order in April. The price is flat.

Why do you say “hungry thirsty?” The steel market has fallen by more than 600 yuan since the start of the Spring Festival, and the market has a stronger expectation for the rise in prices after the Spring Festival. Some of them have stockpiling stockpiles, and steel mills have also raised their ex-factory prices by a large margin. The bullish expectations of the market have been increased, and the market's unpredictability has been caused by the plunge in the market. However, the trend of the capital market and the long-term electronic trading from the technical point of view all show that the fork buying signal, plus the settlement price of the steel mill was announced. Before the end of March, the possibility of a pull-up operation with the help of an electronic disk increased, and the market longed to increase the willingness to recover the difference. Therefore, the pull-up action in the later period is expected to reappear, but the consideration of demand will once again become the focus of market attention.