Daily Commentary: Steel mills and traders have a strong mentality

Today's hot spot

In terms of futures, today's black commodity futures are in a volatile state, with only the coking coal contract closing slightly and the rest of the contracts closing down. Judging from the position of the position, although the volume of the transaction is heavy, but the position change is not large, indicating that both the long and short sides are not in this range, and the short-term will still show a volatile operation. In terms of spot, the price of today's varieties fluctuated within a narrow range, with the average price of rebar falling by RMB 4/ton. From the current situation, steel mill production, inventory and social stocks have declined, both supply pressure and inventory pressure have been significantly eased, steel mills and traders mentality is strong, price-based, short-term domestic steel prices are expected Still running in a strong and volatile situation.

Macro hotspot

1. [Domestic commodity futures mostly closed down, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 3%] Rubber, Zheng alcohol, iron ore, soybean meal fell more than 1%, coke, Zhengyou, rapeseed, corn, Shanghai lead, Shanghai aluminum, ferrosilicon, Shanghai nickel, crude oil, glass, Shanghai silver, Zheng coal, Shanghai copper, thread, hot coil, coking coal, asphalt, Shanghai gold, eggs, etc. closed down. Apple led the gains, up 3.9%; manganese silicon rose 1%, plastics, Shanghai tin, white sugar, etc. closed up.

2, [the market is unilaterally down all day, the stocks of the stocks are falling and the hot plate is collectively turned off]

3. [Report of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities will continue to rise in inertia]

4. [Real estate developers actively test the water, there have been 100 billion long-term rental apartment assets securitization products launched]

Market today

Raw material

[Steel billet] The national billet market price has weakened. Tangshan steel billet dropped 20 yuan / ton, Shandong steel billet fell 10 yuan / ton, other steel billets stable. Today, Tangshan billet straight hair transaction is not smooth, warehousing stock around 3630-3640 tax-included outbound transaction is difficult; the period of low snail operation, the spot market trading atmosphere is deserted, the overall turnover of finished products is weak. Today, Shandong steel billet fell 10 yuan / ton, Q235 billet factory 3610-3620 yuan / ton, the actual transaction is negotiable, steel mills basically do not take orders, multi-row pre-order orders, middlemen mentality pessimistic.

[Domestic mine] The market of domestically produced main producing areas is operating steadily. Prices in North China, Northeast China, East China and South China have temporarily stabilized. Specifically, North China-Tangshan 66% dry-based tax-included cash factory 625-635 yuan / ton, Qianxi 66% dry-based tax-included cash out 615-625 yuan / ton, Qian'an 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 630-640 yuan / ton; Zunhua 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 610-620 yuan / ton.

[Imported mine] The spot market of imported ore was slightly warmer than yesterday, but the transaction price fell by RMB 5/ton. Today's traders offer a price reduction of 5-10 yuan/ton from yesterday, including Tangshan Port mainstream PB powder offer 475 yuan / ton, Shandong port mainstream PB powder offer 465 yuan / ton; steel mills, some just need steel mill today inquiry The sentiment is acceptable, and because most traders have no price intentions, the bargaining space for buying and selling doubles has narrowed, and the transaction has warmed up compared with yesterday.

Steel spot

Construction steel: Today's domestic construction steel prices are narrowly consolidating. In terms of specific prices, the average price of 25 major cities nationwide was 4045 yuan/ton, which was 4 yuan/ton lower than that of the previous trading day. Among them, Central China and North China were slightly weaker, with a drop of 10-20 yuan/ton. The overall situation is basically stable. At present, the market price in the past few days is in a narrow range of fluctuations, and the overall market turnover is not as expected. However, due to the presence of environmental protection groups in Jiangsu, some steel mills have limited production and maintenance, which has a certain impact on the overall market in East China. Therefore, although the transactions have been weak in recent days, the prices are relatively firm. In addition, according to the inventory data of this website, the national construction steel output, steel mill inventory and social inventory are simultaneously showing a downward trend, and the decline is considerable. These have played a significant role in strengthening market confidence and easing market pressure. In the case of fundamental preferences, market prices are expected to run in a volatile and strong trend tomorrow.

Hot-rolled coils: Today's hot rolling prices in 24 major cities nationwide have shown a trend of weakening. The national average price is 4,130 yuan / ton, the largest drop of 30 yuan / ton. Today's market turnover is low, but high-level transactions are relatively poor, and market inventories are generally at a relatively low level. From the feedback from the steel mills, the output still remained at a high level, but the scattered demand for engineering and substitution continued to be maintained, so the supply and demand were in a tight balance and the adjustment space was not large. Today, the price of northern steel mills is 3,900-3,950 yuan / ton, and the transaction is general. However, the price difference between the North, Central and South has been fine-tuned, so the flow will remain normal in the later period, which has a slight impact on the overall price, but it is not large. Therefore, in the short term, the price is fine-tuned and the inventory accumulation is slightly smaller. Next, price fluctuations will not be too obvious.

Plate: Today's domestic plate market price consolidation is weakening, the average price of 20mm plate in 23 major cities nationwide is 4336 yuan / ton, down 2 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. At present, the overall resources of the spot market are still positive, while the steel enterprises have no loose support for cost support. However, as demand increases, the substantial demand has not increased simultaneously, and the pallets in the near two days. Under the influence of the shock operation and the steel billet falling by RMB 20/ton in the afternoon, the spot price was slightly loose. On the whole, there are still many supporting factors in the spot before the holiday, so the probability of short-term price adjustment is too high.

Cold rolling: Today's national cold rolling prices are generally stable. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4605 yuan / ton, compared with the previous working day price fell 7 yuan / ton. The main market price: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coil plate offer 4,500 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4,540 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm anangel coil offer 4,440 yuan / ton. In terms of the market: the overall stability, some regions cut the offer price of 20-80 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang belongs to the previous period. From the point of view of understanding, some of the specifications are out of stock, and the merchants are willing to pay more. From this week's cold rolling inventory data, the network monitors 26 cities' inventories, and this week's cold rolling inventory was 1,165,600 tons, a decrease of 23,400 tons from last week. The decline in the social library is obvious. In the short term, the price fluctuates with a high probability event.

Profiles: Today, the domestic steel market price is narrowly arranged, and the market shipment mentality is strengthened. Specifically, the Tangshan steel market continued to be weak, and the overall price was lowered by 10-20 yuan/ton. The overall transaction was weak, and the afternoon transaction did not improve. In addition, the price of steel billet dropped by RMB 20/ton in the afternoon, and the market's pessimistic attitude increased. The sample steel mill reported that the afternoon steel mill had a turnover of about 16,100 tons. The price of East China's profiled products was consolidating and the actual transaction in some cities was 10-20 yuan/ton loose. As the spot price is at a high level at the current stage, the downstream purchasing units are more likely to wait and see, and in addition, the recent market shipments increase operation and the period and billet performance are unstable, so the market is loose in the afternoon. The price in South China continued to be stable in the early morning. At present, the overall market inventory is low. In addition, the terminal has stocking before the May Day. Today, the shipment is still acceptable and the price is relatively strong. It is expected that the current market bullish enthusiasm will gradually cool down, and the mainstream operation of the market is still fast-forward and fast-moving. Therefore, the domestic steel market price is expected to be weak and consolidating tomorrow.

Steel pipe: Today, the domestic steel pipe price is stable and weak, according to the variety: the welded pipe 4 inch *3.75mm national average price 4373 yuan / ton, down 2 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day; galvanized pipe 4 inch * 3.75mm nationwide The average price was 5,240 yuan / ton, down 1 yuan / ton from the previous trading day; the average price of seamless pipe Ф 108 * 4.5mm was 5,240 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous trading day. Regarding the pipe factory, there is no price adjustment information for Tianjin Youfa, Juncheng and Lida ex-factory prices. The hot-rolling price of Linyi mainstream seamless pipe factory is 4750-4780 yuan/ton. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, the overall transaction in the market is still acceptable. At present, the environmental supervision team in Tangshan and Shengfang areas has little impact on the pipe plant. In terms of seamless pipes, market transactions have become better, and traders have begun to replenish their stocks, and they are cautiously optimistic about the market outlook. It is expected that the market price of steel pipe will be adjusted and operated in the future.

Futures: Today, the domestic black commodity futures oscillated. Except for the coking coal contract, the other varieties all closed down. According to the positions, the varieties increased and decreased slightly, and the recent disk positions fluctuated less. Specifically, taking the snail as an example, from the daily level, the night plate rushed back in a short period of time, the day oscillated, and finally closed the upper and lower shadows, but the obvious support on the 5th line, MACD did not turn Head phenomenon. From the perspective of the 1 hour line, after the stage high point of 3616, the oscillating operation began, and a number of small yin and yang lines were arranged, and the changes in the positions of the superimposed positions showed that the long-term wait-and-see attitude was strong. In the case of multiple moving averages, there may be some resistance in the short-term upside. On the whole, the short-term will continue to run in a volatile upward trend. In terms of spot, the performance of the transaction is still relatively general, and the price fluctuates within a narrow range. Overall, black commodity futures still have room to rebound, or in the form of shocks, it is recommended to do more on dips and pay attention to positions.

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