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The total investment of major local projects is close to 4 trillion in two months.
In the context of declining economic growth, local pressures on fiscal revenue and employment have been heavy. In order to stimulate the accelerated development of the economy, local governments in many provinces and cities temporarily put down the goal of restructuring, and once again sacrificed the "killer" of infrastructure investment. From June to the end of July, from Shaanxi to Guangdong, the total investment in major projects launched by local governments was close to 4 trillion in more than a month. The time span of these investments is long and short. The “3 trillion plan†in Guizhou is 10 years long, but the experts interviewed by China Business News believe that funds are still the main bottleneck to achieve these plans, but to break through. This bottleneck is the key to guiding the participation of private capital. Local version 4 trillion? In June of this year, Shaanxi took the lead in issuing ten “steady growth†opinions, proposing efforts to promote the construction of major projects, and giving full play to the key role of investment in stabilizing economic growth, including speeding up the start of a number of major projects, winning the state approval of a number of projects, and actively Plan to reserve a batch of projects and speed up the construction of projects under construction. Among them, including speeding up the construction of a number of major projects to ensure the construction of Xicheng Passenger Special, Xihe Double Track, Mengxi-Huazhong Coal Passage and other projects in the second half of the year; strive for the state to approve a number of projects to protect South Korea's Samsung, the United States Johnson & Johnson A number of major projects such as Shenhua Dow were approved as soon as possible. Since then, in early July, Guangdong Province has also proposed 19 measures for steady growth, including a series of measures to accelerate the construction of major projects. It is necessary to fully reverse the continuous decline in investment as the top priority for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth. The data shows that in the first half of the year, the accumulated investment in key projects in Guangdong Province was 154.8 billion yuan, which was 38.7% of the annual plan. The funds were 155.5 billion yuan, only 38.8% of the annual plan. Among them, Guangzhou City also recently proposed that in the second half of the year, we should focus on the construction of 101 key projects with an annual investment of 71.4 billion yuan and 120 projects listed in the provincial top 500 industries; the total investment of state-owned enterprises is more than 127 billion yuan. The construction of 76 continued construction and new construction projects. This series of investment plans also exceeded 200 billion yuan. At the same time, the total expansion of the Baiyun Airport expansion project recently started in the city and the newly approved 7 subway lines totaled more than 140 billion. On July 16, Ningbo City issued the "Several Opinions of the Municipal Government on Promoting the Stable Growth of the Industrial Economy and Promoting the Transformation of the Structure", and proposed to accelerate the construction of major industrial projects, major industrial projects with an investment of more than 2 billion yuan and 300 million yuan. Strategic emerging industry projects above RMB will be assessed and commended separately. On July 23, Nanjing Municipality issued a number of opinions on further expanding domestic demand to stimulate consumption. It also proposed to actively play the role of investment in stimulating domestic demand, accelerate the construction of infrastructure projects, the construction of emerging industrial projects and the construction of consumer carriers. In contrast, investment plans in Changsha and Guizhou are more specific. On July 26, Changsha City announced that there were 195 major promotion projects in 2012, with a total investment of 829.2 billion yuan. The “Guizhou Eco-Cultural Tourism Development Plan†to be released this month shows that 2,382 projects from various regions have been selected to select key investment projects with a total amount of about 3 trillion yuan, and it is proposed to plan 10 national-level major projects and 50 provincial-level major projects. Projects and 200 provincial key projects. The key is to guide the private capital. However, such a large investment plan everywhere, how to raise funds has clearly become the focus of the outside world. In particular, the local high debt risk caused by the previous 4 trillion investment plan has not been ruled out. If local funds are still very tight, a new round of large-scale investment planning may bring more heavy debt pressure to the localities. Take Guizhou Province as an example. Last year, the province realized a general budget revenue of only 77.32 billion yuan. How to support the huge 3 trillion investment plan has clearly become the focus of the outside world. Professor Tang Zhengren, Vice President of the Party School of the Guizhou Provincial Party Committee, told the “First Financial Daily†that the 3 trillion plan announced by Guizhou Province is a ten-year concept, and it is only a plan. “The government is mainly guiding this plan. The government's financial guidance can focus on some infrastructure, publicity and promotion, rather than saying that the government has so much money to invest." Liu Shangxi, deputy director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance, wrote that the steady growth of the new stage and the past Compared with a lot of changes, the most prominent point is that market power is increasing. Investment plans everywhere are not all government investments, and local governments cannot have the ability to make huge investments. It is undoubtedly a key point for the government to do a good job of planning, improving the guidance, and introducing private funds to the real economy and infrastructure with cash flow. In July, Guangdong Province announced the first batch of 44 major projects for private investment bidding, with a total investment of 235.3 billion yuan, covering transportation projects, urban construction projects, social undertaking projects, industrial park infrastructure projects, leisure tourism projects. Among them, transportation projects accounted for a large number of 11 projects with a total investment of 128 billion yuan. "We are guarding Jinshan and calling for poverty." Professor Chen Hongyu, the Guangdong Provincial Government Counselor and Executive Vice President of the Guangdong Provincial Economic Association, said that there are a large number of private capital in Guangdong that cannot find a way out of investment. How to guide private capital into the investment field, especially The monopoly of state-owned enterprises requires the government to actively support and guide. Infrastructure-driven real estate for local governments, in the short-term, "stable growth" role, and effective, is still increasing government infrastructure investment. For example, in the investment planning of Changsha City, industrial project investment only accounts for 16% of the total investment scale. Other projects are functional zone development, infrastructure construction and urbanization projects. Peng Yu, deputy dean of the Guangdong Institute of Comprehensive Reform and Development, believes that local governments are keen on infrastructure investment with many factors. Among them, the combination of infrastructure and real estate is the closest, and the infrastructure is well-developed, and the land transfer price is further raised. The government can use the infrastructure to fry the land and increase the local income. In addition, investment infrastructure is a good choice when capacity is already relatively surplus. Peng Wei believes that the overcapacity of infrastructure construction cannot be generalized. The economic cycle should be considered, and the economic cycle is very difficult to predict, but the moderate advancement of infrastructure is still necessary, because infrastructure construction is also preparing for the future economic cycle. "The development of the western region must first improve infrastructure construction." Zhang Baotong, director of the Shaanxi Provincial Government and director of the Shaanxi Provincial Academy of Social Sciences Regional Development Counseling Center, believes that after 30 years of rapid development in the eastern region, it is now necessary to engage in infrastructure on a large scale. There may be a surplus, but for the west, the infrastructure must be built first to lay the foundation for the next step of development. “The infrastructure must go ahead. If there is a market, it will be late to build it.†Zhang Baotong believes The western region is an energy and raw material base. It requires large-traffic railways and highways. "It must not be 'one size fits all' to the east and the west, but should be treated differently according to local conditions."